If you listen to the pundits lately, Trump’s planned mass deportation of “unauthorized immigrants” will cause havoc within several industries, with construction being the industry most affected.

We tend to think of the supposed 12 million unauthorized immigrants as working in landscaping or fast food, yet nationally 13.7% of workers in the construction industry are “undocumented workers” – the highest percentage in any industry. Other surveys estimate that immigrants, with varying legal statuses, make up to 20 to 30% of the U.S. construction workforce.

Yet, the roles that these undocumented workers fill will not be found on the floors of the engineering companies responsible for building the semiconductor manufacturing facilities or in our country’s OEM community building HRSGs or boilers. These workers will be found in the supporting roles of subcontractors and suppliers.

At present, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the undocumented workforce accounts for 39% of all plasterers, 36% of drywall workers, 36% of roofers and 31% of painters. In 2023, 15.2% of production, transportation and material moving occupations were filled by undocumented workers!

Prior to the electrical, mechanical and equipment installations, projects require foundations, walls and insulation, as well as a supply chain delivering piping, electrical, plumbing and HVAC components.  How would mass deportations of these workers affect the performance of subcontractor and material supply concerns?

Studies show that employers will be hard pressed to find substitutes for the jobs that undocumented workers do.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the historically low unemployment rate in the U.S. masks the decades long trend of working men leaving the labor force, with the male labor force participation rate falling from a high of 98% in 1954 to 89% in September 2024. Many undocumented workers are filling roles that American citizens do not want.

Last week, the Texas Tribune wrote that “undocumented people have built apartment complexes and skyscrapers that changed skylines!” Among major Texas industries, construction has the highest proportion of undocumented workers. In the oil rich Permian Basin, the newspaper writes, “mass deportations could reduce populations in cities and result in closed businesses and the disappearance of tax dollars.”

In Florida, a high number of undocumented immigrants have an ITIN (Individual Tax Information Number) in the hopes that paying taxes will help them obtain citizenship. In 2022, undocumented immigrants paid $1.9 BILLION in Florida state and local taxes.

Whether there is a plan for massive deportation or deportation was rhetoric for a campaign, the construction industry – already looking for workers (“Where Have All the Workers Gone? 12-12-23 Newsletter) – must invest in workforce development programs to train a new generation of workers.

 The U.A. (United Association), to which Dixie is a signatory, offers comprehensive apprenticeship programs including “Veterans in Piping (VIP), diverse training options and on the job learning programs. It is through programs such as these that U.A. contractors and fabricators hope to find their next generation of workers.

Yet, what of the jobs filled by undocumented workers. What if those positions became vacant? Should the Federal Government expand the H-1B visa program to include tradespersons as it does for engineers?  As of now, all we have are questions.